January 2026 NICS Background Checks Dip Slightly While NFA Checks Surge

February 10, 2026
10:40 am

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January's NSSF-adjusted NICS background check numbers came in at a modest dip from last year—down about 1.2% to around 1.8 million—signaling a subtle cooling in the retail firearms market after the post-election frenzy of 2024. But here's where it gets spicy: NFA applications exploded by a whopping 121.2%, smashing records for suppressors, short-barreled rifles, and other regulated toys under the National Firearms Act. This isn't just buyers window-shopping; it's a calculated rush by serious enthusiasts fortifying their collections against whispers of regulatory tightening from the incoming administration. Think about it—while everyday pistol and carbine sales normalize, the suppressor surge (up over 140% alone) screams brace for impact, with Americans preemptively checking boxes before ATF rule changes or Harris-era crackdowns turn today's legal NFA item into tomorrow's contraband. Diving deeper, this dichotomy paints a savvy 2A community playbook: deprioritize impulse buys in favor of high-commitment, future-proofed hardware. Political headwinds are the catalyst—Biden's lame-duck pardons and executive orders already primed the pump, but Trump's victory didn't erase fears of blue-state AGs or federal overreach via backdoor interpretations of the NFA. Compare this to 2020's panic-buying spike (NICS up 65% YoY), where volume ruled; today's NFA boom reflects maturity, with AR/SBR builders and can enthusiasts voting with their wallets. Data from past cycles backs it: post-Obama NFA waits ballooned 300%, yet demand held firm, proving these aren't fair-weather patriots. For the 2A faithful, the implication is crystal clear—double down on advocacy like the Hearing Protection Act revival and SHORT Act momentum while the iron's hot. This surge isn't panic; it's preparation, a bullish signal that gun owners are adapting faster than bureaucrats can pivot. If NICS stabilizes and NFA keeps climbing into Q2, expect manufacturers like SilencerCo and Q to post banner quarters, underscoring why the industry thrives amid adversity. Stay vigilant, stock the safe, and keep the pressure on Congress—freedom's favorite sound just got louder.

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January’s NSSF-adjusted NICS background check numbers came in at a modest dip from last year—down about 1.2% to around 1.8 million—signaling a subtle cooling in the retail firearms market after the post-election frenzy of 2024. But here’s where it gets spicy: NFA applications exploded by a whopping 121.2%, smashing records for suppressors, short-barreled rifles, and other regulated toys under the National Firearms Act. This isn’t just buyers window-shopping; it’s a calculated rush by serious enthusiasts fortifying their collections against whispers of regulatory tightening from the incoming administration. Think about it—while everyday pistol and carbine sales normalize, the suppressor surge (up over 140% alone) screams brace for impact, with Americans preemptively checking boxes before ATF rule changes or Harris-era crackdowns turn today’s legal NFA item into tomorrow’s contraband.

Diving deeper, this dichotomy paints a savvy 2A community playbook: deprioritize impulse buys in favor of high-commitment, future-proofed hardware. Political headwinds are the catalyst—Biden’s lame-duck pardons and executive orders already primed the pump, but Trump’s victory didn’t erase fears of blue-state AGs or federal overreach via backdoor interpretations of the NFA. Compare this to 2020’s panic-buying spike (NICS up 65% YoY), where volume ruled; today’s NFA boom reflects maturity, with AR/SBR builders and can enthusiasts voting with their wallets. Data from past cycles backs it: post-Obama NFA waits ballooned 300%, yet demand held firm, proving these aren’t fair-weather patriots.

For the 2A faithful, the implication is crystal clear—double down on advocacy like the Hearing Protection Act revival and SHORT Act momentum while the iron’s hot. This surge isn’t panic; it’s preparation, a bullish signal that gun owners are adapting faster than bureaucrats can pivot. If NICS stabilizes and NFA keeps climbing into Q2, expect manufacturers like SilencerCo and Q to post banner quarters, underscoring why the industry thrives amid adversity. Stay vigilant, stock the safe, and keep the pressure on Congress—freedom’s favorite sound just got louder.

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