RetailBI Annual Retail Report Details Market Softening and Inventory Correction for 2025

January 29, 2026
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RetailBI's latest 2025 Shooting Sports Executive Report, powered by Gearfire and drawn from POS and eCommerce data across more than 2,000 U.S. firearms retailers, paints a sobering picture: same-store new firearm unit sales dropped a sharp 13% year-over-year. This isn't just a blip—it's the latest signal of sustained demand compression and a deliberate inventory correction rippling through the industry. After the frenzy of pandemic-era buying and the political panic spikes around elections and policy threats, the market is finally exhaling. Retailers are shedding excess stock piled up during those artificial booms, which means fewer impulse buys and a return to more rational purchasing patterns. Think of it as the shooting sports equivalent of a post-holiday clearance sale, but with higher stakes for manufacturers, dealers, and enthusiasts alike. Digging deeper, this softening isn't a death knell for the 2A community—it's a maturation moment. We've seen this cycle before: post-Obama surges, Trump-era plateaus, and Biden-fueled rushes that bloated inventories to unsustainable levels. Now, with no immediate regulatory Armageddon on the horizon (fingers crossed), buyers are prioritizing quality over quantity—opting for precision rifles, modular pistols, and optics upgrades rather than stacking AR-15s in the safe. Clever manufacturers like those innovating in suppressors, micro-compacts, and direct-to-consumer models will thrive, while laggards get weeded out. For the 2A faithful, the implication is clear: this dip is your cue to hunt deals, support local FFLs clearing inventory, and double down on training and community events. A leaner market weeds out fair-weather hobbyists, strengthening the core defenders of our rights. Looking ahead, expect 2025 to stabilize as inventory normalizes, potentially setting the stage for growth if red-flag laws or ATF overreach rear their heads again. The real winners? Savvy shooters who view this as a buyer's market, stocking up on proven performers at discounted prices. Stay vigilant, train hard, and remember: market corrections pass, but Second Amendment resolve doesn't. This report is a reality check, not a retreat—time to gear up smarter, not bigger.

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RetailBI’s latest 2025 Shooting Sports Executive Report, powered by Gearfire and drawn from POS and eCommerce data across more than 2,000 U.S. firearms retailers, paints a sobering picture: same-store new firearm unit sales dropped a sharp 13% year-over-year. This isn’t just a blip—it’s the latest signal of sustained demand compression and a deliberate inventory correction rippling through the industry. After the frenzy of pandemic-era buying and the political panic spikes around elections and policy threats, the market is finally exhaling. Retailers are shedding excess stock piled up during those artificial booms, which means fewer impulse buys and a return to more rational purchasing patterns. Think of it as the shooting sports equivalent of a post-holiday clearance sale, but with higher stakes for manufacturers, dealers, and enthusiasts alike.

Digging deeper, this softening isn’t a death knell for the 2A community—it’s a maturation moment. We’ve seen this cycle before: post-Obama surges, Trump-era plateaus, and Biden-fueled rushes that bloated inventories to unsustainable levels. Now, with no immediate regulatory Armageddon on the horizon (fingers crossed), buyers are prioritizing quality over quantity—opting for precision rifles, modular pistols, and optics upgrades rather than stacking AR-15s in the safe. Clever manufacturers like those innovating in suppressors, micro-compacts, and direct-to-consumer models will thrive, while laggards get weeded out. For the 2A faithful, the implication is clear: this dip is your cue to hunt deals, support local FFLs clearing inventory, and double down on training and community events. A leaner market weeds out fair-weather hobbyists, strengthening the core defenders of our rights.

Looking ahead, expect 2025 to stabilize as inventory normalizes, potentially setting the stage for growth if red-flag laws or ATF overreach rear their heads again. The real winners? Savvy shooters who view this as a buyer’s market, stocking up on proven performers at discounted prices. Stay vigilant, train hard, and remember: market corrections pass, but Second Amendment resolve doesn’t. This report is a reality check, not a retreat—time to gear up smarter, not bigger.

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