Trump Effect: Business Inflation Expectations Fall Back To Pre-Biden Normal

February 18, 2026
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Business inflation expectations just plunged to 1.93 percent in February—the lowest since November 2020 and a dead ringer for the pre-Biden average of 2015-2019. This isn't some abstract econ stat; it's the Trump Effect in action, signaling that CEOs and CFOs are betting big on a return to the low-inflation glory days of the Trump era. After years of Biden's fiscal fireworks inflating everything from egg prices to AR-15 components, this drop reflects surging confidence in policy shifts like tariffs on China, energy dominance, and slashed regulations. Markets are pricing in a Trump victory, and the data backs it: the New York Fed's survey shows businesses dialing back price hikes faster than at any point in the post-COVID mess. For the 2A community, this is pure oxygen. Inflation has been a stealth tax on gun owners, jacking up costs for everything from 5.56 ammo (up 30% since 2021) to polymer frames and milling services. When expectations normalize to Trump-era levels, expect manufacturing margins to widen, competition to heat up, and prices to stabilize or drop—meaning more disposable income for range days, custom builds, and stocking suppressors without breaking the bank. We've seen this movie before: under Trump, real wages rose for working-class patriots who form the backbone of the gun culture, while Biden's inflation eroded purchasing power by 20%. A low-expectation environment crushes the excuses for supply chain gouging by Big Ammo conglomerates, paving the way for boutique 2A innovators to thrive. The implications? If Trump pulls it off, brace for a manufacturing renaissance that supercharges domestic firearms production—think reshored factories in red states churning out affordable rifles and handguns, less reliance on imported parts vulnerable to globalist whims. This isn't just about cheaper plinking; it's economic freedom reinforcing Second Amendment resilience. Gun owners, who skew toward fiscal conservatives, get a double win: policies that protect our rights and wallets. Keep an eye on March data— if it holds, the Trump Effect could be the spark igniting a 2A boom not seen since the pre-panic glory days.

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Business inflation expectations just plunged to 1.93 percent in February—the lowest since November 2020 and a dead ringer for the pre-Biden average of 2015-2019. This isn’t some abstract econ stat; it’s the Trump Effect in action, signaling that CEOs and CFOs are betting big on a return to the low-inflation glory days of the Trump era. After years of Biden’s fiscal fireworks inflating everything from egg prices to AR-15 components, this drop reflects surging confidence in policy shifts like tariffs on China, energy dominance, and slashed regulations. Markets are pricing in a Trump victory, and the data backs it: the New York Fed’s survey shows businesses dialing back price hikes faster than at any point in the post-COVID mess.

For the 2A community, this is pure oxygen. Inflation has been a stealth tax on gun owners, jacking up costs for everything from 5.56 ammo (up 30% since 2021) to polymer frames and milling services. When expectations normalize to Trump-era levels, expect manufacturing margins to widen, competition to heat up, and prices to stabilize or drop—meaning more disposable income for range days, custom builds, and stocking suppressors without breaking the bank. We’ve seen this movie before: under Trump, real wages rose for working-class patriots who form the backbone of the gun culture, while Biden’s inflation eroded purchasing power by 20%. A low-expectation environment crushes the excuses for supply chain gouging by Big Ammo conglomerates, paving the way for boutique 2A innovators to thrive.

The implications? If Trump pulls it off, brace for a manufacturing renaissance that supercharges domestic firearms production—think reshored factories in red states churning out affordable rifles and handguns, less reliance on imported parts vulnerable to globalist whims. This isn’t just about cheaper plinking; it’s economic freedom reinforcing Second Amendment resilience. Gun owners, who skew toward fiscal conservatives, get a double win: policies that protect our rights and wallets. Keep an eye on March data— if it holds, the Trump Effect could be the spark igniting a 2A boom not seen since the pre-panic glory days.

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