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A “Thought Experiment” That has Already Been Tried—And Failed

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Washington Post opinion columnist Megan McArdle has dusted off what she frames as a fresh thought experiment to tackle violent crime: a sweeping government buyback of firearms, coupled with strict new restrictions on ownership. It’s the kind of pitch that sounds tidy on paper—government swoops in, pays folks to hand over their guns, and poof, fewer mass shootings and street violence. But as the headline hints, this isn’t some novel brainstorm; it’s a retread of policies already tested in places like Australia (1996-97 buyback after Port Arthur) and various U.S. cities post-tragedy. McArdle herself nods to the history, yet spins it as worth revisiting amid America’s gun debate. Spoiler: history didn’t deliver the utopia promised.

Let’s dissect why this experiment flops every time, with hard data the WaPo crowd often glosses over. Australia’s buyback confiscated about 650,000 firearms, slashing gun ownership rates, but homicide rates barely budged—firearm homicides dropped modestly (from 0.57 to 0.47 per 100,000), while non-firearm homicides rose in tandem, per University of Sydney criminologist Samara McPhedran’s analysis. Suicides dipped initially but rebounded, and overall violent crime didn’t crater. Closer to home, buybacks in cities like Chicago (1990s) and Los Angeles (2009) netted rusty relics and airsoft guns from the wrong crowds, with zero measurable dent in crime rates, as RAND Corporation studies confirm. Criminals don’t line up for government checks; they traffic black-market Glocks. McArdle’s piece waves away these failures with hand-wavy maybe if we do it bigger vibes, ignoring compliance issues—Australia saw 20-30% non-participation, and U.S. polls (Pew, Gallup) show 40%+ of owners would defy a national buyback.

For the 2A community, this is red meat: another elite op-ed masquerading confiscation as compassion, blind to the Second Amendment’s core promise of self-defense against tyranny and crime. Implications? It fuels the slippery slope—start with voluntary buybacks, end with door-kick SWAT raids, as seen in New Zealand’s rushed 2019 scheme post-Christchurch. Gun owners know the real crime deterrents: armed citizens (defensive gun uses outnumber criminal ones 30:1 per Kleck’s research) and hardened targets like concealed carry expansions, which correlate with 10-15% violent crime drops (John Lott’s work). McArdle’s thought experiment isn’t innovative; it’s a Trojan horse for disarmament that’s been battered by reality. 2A patriots, stay vigilant—this WaPo rerun proves they never learn, but we do.

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