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The Warning Signs We Keep Missing Before Mass Shootings

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Research from Jason Silva of William Paterson University and Adam Lankford of the University of Alabama found advance signs in over 70 percent of public mass killings, matching a 2019 Secret Service finding that 83 percent of school attackers had communicated intent. Roughly half of the deadliest such U.S. attacks over 30 years had already been reported to police, and the pair found a formal law-enforcement response in 45 percent of cases with prior signs, producing arrests 21 percent of the time and incarceration 6 percent. Because the First Amendment protects speech and the Second Amendment protects arms, they argue for stronger reporting, threat assessment, and help focused on the few people who announce plans to kill rather than treating millions of peaceable gun owners as suspects.

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